Loan Closing Probability Calculator

Select the loan's current milestone and how many days it's been there. Get the probability of closing within your target window.

Loan Parameters

Current Milestone

N = 15,089 loans at this milestone

Days at This Milestone

Calendar days since reaching this milestone

Target Window (days)

Calculate P(close within this many additional days)

Methodology: Empirical conditional survival probability from 16,546 loans (2022–2026).

P(X) = [CDF(D+X) − CDF(D)] / [1 − CDF(D)]

Where D = days already at milestone, X = target window, and CDF = empirical cumulative distribution of days from milestone to funding.

Adjust the parameters and click Calculate
to see closing probability.